Navigating Uncertainty: The Future of Futures Analysis in the Australian Public Service

Vol: 
14
Author name: 
Wilson, L
Young, R
Kapetas, A
Year: 
2020
Month: 
June
Abstract: 

Nations and governments today face complex structural challenges; the result of several decades of sweeping economic, technological and social change.

The COVID-19 pandemic, and government responses worldwide, will likely ensure that the 2020s is a ‘decisional decade’.

The critical choices we make on core systems that underpin human flourishing – from technology and governance, to energy, climate, and social equity – will place us on paths that will be difficult to depart from, and thus be defining for the generations that follow.

Reducing this risk is both possible and compatible with the predictable structure and focus on delivery that effective bureaucracy demands.

By putting effort into Futures Analysis, organisations can minimise surprise without undermining other strengths.

This Policy Options Paper explores the increasing value Futures Analysis can offer the Australian Public Service and delivers concrete recommendations for how it should be integrated into APS operations.

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